Vis Pesaro 1-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.74
Over
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.76
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
22%
3.89
6+
12%
17.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.2pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.49/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.45
+13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vis Pesaro
1W-1D-1L
AWAY SPAL
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 SPAL SPAL 0-1 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
06.01.2024 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-1 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
02.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-0 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vis Pesaro
1-1
AWAY SPAL
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vis Pesaro vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vis Pesaro and SPAL couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vis Pesaro had 46% of the ball to SPAL's 54%, shots finished 8-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vis Pesaro and 0.67 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Vis Pesaro vs SPAL?

Vis Pesaro 1-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vis Pesaro vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vis Pesaro win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vis Pesaro 39%, draw 31%, SPAL 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vis Pesaro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vis Pesaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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