Breidablik 2-1 Stjarnan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
55%
-0.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Breidablik EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.78/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.83
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
21.5 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Breidablik
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stjarnan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 1.70
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
285 Passes 348
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2024 Breidablik Breidablik 2-1 HT 0-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
11.08.2024 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-2 HT 1-0 Breidablik Breidablik İZL
21.05.2024 Breidablik Breidablik 2-1 HT 2-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
08.10.2023 Breidablik Breidablik 0-2 HT 0-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
29.07.2023 Breidablik Breidablik 1-1 HT 0-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
04.05.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 0-2 HT 0-2 Breidablik Breidablik İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Breidablik
2-1
AWAY Stjarnan
2.24 xG 0.66
54% Ball Possession 46%
26 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
311 Passes 259
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
50 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Breidablik vs Stjarnan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Breidablik squeezed past Stjarnan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Breidablik as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Breidablik had 54% of the ball to Stjarnan's 46%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.24 to 0.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Breidablik's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Breidablik had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Breidablik and 1.17 for Stjarnan.

What was the final score of Breidablik vs Stjarnan?

Breidablik 2-1 Stjarnan in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Breidablik vs Stjarnan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Breidablik win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Breidablik 55%, draw 23%, Stjarnan 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Breidablik), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Breidablik) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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