Valur 3-1 KA Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.4pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.3pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valur EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY KA Akureyri EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +15%
1.93/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.65
+7% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 71%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
22.9 Crosses 18.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valur
3W-0D-3L
AWAY KA Akureyri
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.81 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
387 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2024 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 1-0 HT 1-0 Valur Valur İZL
02.07.2024 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 3-2 HT 2-1 Valur Valur İZK
11.05.2024 Valur Valur 3-1 HT 1-1 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
07.08.2023 Valur Valur 4-2 HT 3-0 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
13.05.2023 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 0-4 HT 0-3 Valur Valur İZL
29.10.2022 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 2-0 HT 2-0 Valur Valur İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valur
3-1
AWAY KA Akureyri
2.27 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
413 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valur vs KA Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valur got the better of KA Akureyri 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valur as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Valur had 52% of the ball to KA Akureyri's 48%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 2.27 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valur and 1.50 for KA Akureyri.

What was the final score of Valur vs KA Akureyri?

Valur 3-1 KA Akureyri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valur vs KA Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Valur 49%, draw 26%, KA Akureyri 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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