Hajduk Split 0-1 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.39/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.20
-8% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
420 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.9 Crosses 13.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.13 xG 0.70
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
343 Passes 243
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.02.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
09.11.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
25.08.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.05.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.03.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
26.11.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
0-1
AWAY Istra 1961
0.69 xG 0.86
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
331 Passes 356
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 edged past Hajduk Split 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 50% of the ball to Istra 1961's 50%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.69 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?

Hajduk Split 0-1 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 49%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hajduk Split) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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