HNK Gorica 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
52%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.02
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.3pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.0pp
51%
Away Win
67%
-15.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 71%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -21%
0.86/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.78
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
262 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 79%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
13.6 Crosses 20.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.54 xG 1.79
36% Ball Possession 63%
5 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
224 Passes 478
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 37
9 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.11.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
24.08.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
13.04.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
28.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
04.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.49 xG 0.98
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 17
233 Passes 489
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 42
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica squeezed past Dinamo Zagreb 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Zagreb at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 34% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 66%, shots finished 4-20, expected goals 0.49 to 0.98 — on chances, Dinamo Zagreb could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.50 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 21%, draw 27%, Dinamo Zagreb 51%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5
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