Malmö FF 2-3 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 23 Apr 2026

📅23/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.33
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.97
Over 2.5
59%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.63
No
39%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.47
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.44
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.45
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
9%
4.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.92
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
39%
+5.7pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.9pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
47%
-6.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
53%
+6.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
57%
+3.4pp
39%
BTTS No
43%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +26%
1.04/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.30
-41% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
15.5 Crosses 19.4
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
3W-1D-2L
AWAY IK Sirius
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.27 xG 1.30
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
486 Passes 249
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2025 IK Sirius IK Sirius 5-1 HT 2-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
18.04.2025 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-1 HT 0-1 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
27.07.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-1 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
19.07.2024 IK Sirius IK Sirius 3-4 HT 2-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
28.08.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 1-3 HT 1-2 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
01.07.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-0 HT 1-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
2-3
AWAY IK Sirius
1.45 xG 2.08
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
395 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Sirius edged past Malmö FF 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Malmö FF at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Malmö FF had 57% of the ball to IK Sirius's 43%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.45 to 2.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Malmö FF and 1.83 for IK Sirius.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs IK Sirius?

Malmö FF 2-3 IK Sirius in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 23/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 45%, draw 21%, IK Sirius 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Malmö FF) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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