Atletico Goianiense 4-2 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 23 May 2024

📅23/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.43
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
26%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.09
6+ Goals
10%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
66%
-18.5pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.1pp
25%
Away Win
12%
+13.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.9pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 15%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.88/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/2.49
-32% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
40.0 Crosses 9.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Brusque
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.82 xG 0.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
433 Passes 381
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 0
01.05.2024 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BRK
14.02.2019 Brusque Brusque 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
4-2
AWAY Brusque
2.39 xG 0.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
28 Total Shots 13
14 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
417 Passes 354
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
40 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense got the better of Brusque 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Goianiense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 53% of the ball to Brusque's 47%, shots finished 28-13, expected goals 2.39 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atletico Goianiense had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.50 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Brusque?

Atletico Goianiense 4-2 Brusque in the Brazil - Cup on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 47%, draw 27%, Brusque 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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