Sport Recife 1-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 23 May 2024

📅23/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
40%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.14
6+ Goals
10%
19.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
22%
+9.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
40%
Away Win
54%
-13.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -33%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
Crosses 11.8
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.55 xG 2.25
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 496
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRK
19.09.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 2-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
07.06.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
21.02.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
25.10.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
30.09.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 5-2 HT 4-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.56 xG 0.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 2
296 Passes 300
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife edged past Atletico Mineiro 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Sport Recife made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sport Recife had 51% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 49%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.56 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sport Recife and 2.33 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro?

Sport Recife 1-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Cup on 23/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 31%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5
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