Jaro 3-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.8
Over
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.99
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.63
6+
9%
15.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.52
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
13%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.34
X/2
10%
7.84
X/X
9%
4.69
2/1
10%
24.35
2/2
13%
6.21
2/X
5%
14.95
Value flag · 1/X at 13.9 — our 13% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn The Market 28%
-20% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.04/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.64
+9% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 68%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
30.1 Crosses 16.0
0.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
1W-3D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.08 xG 1.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
363 Passes 391
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2025 Jaro Jaro 2-3 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
06.07.2025 Jaro Jaro 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
05.04.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-2 HT 0-1 Jaro Jaro FİN
17.09.2015 Jaro Jaro 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
19.07.2015 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 4-3 HT 3-1 Jaro Jaro FİN
12.04.2015 Jaro Jaro 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
3-0
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.37 xG 0.45
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
281 Passes 424
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jaro ran out comfortable winners over IFK Mariehamn 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jaro as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jaro had 41% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 59%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.37 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jaro and 1.50 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?

Jaro 3-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Jaro 45%, draw 27%, IFK Mariehamn 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jaro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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