KuPS Kuopio 2-1 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
65%
1.53
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.95
Over
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.35
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
19%
3.3
6+
11%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.35 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.91
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
16%
3.94
X/2
5%
11.45
X/X
9%
5.48
2/1
9%
22.65
2/2
5%
9.62
2/X
5%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
KuPS Kuopio win — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
65%
Home Win
61%
+4.1pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.5pp
16%
Away Win
17%
-0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio The Market 66%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti The Market 20%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.86/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.79
-5% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
490 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.5 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FC Lahti
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.36 xG 0.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
394 Passes 326
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
27.04.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
16.03.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FLK
01.07.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-4 HT 1-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
20.05.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
31.08.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
2-1
AWAY FC Lahti
2.52 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
331 Passes 346
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio nicked a narrow win over FC Lahti 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 49% of the ball to FC Lahti's 51%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.52 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold KuPS Kuopio's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.50 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti?

KuPS Kuopio 2-1 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 65%, draw 19%, FC Lahti 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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