Maribor 3-0 Aluminij — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.3pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Aluminij EU Bookmakers 32%
-15% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.29/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.50
-11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
374 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aluminij
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.03.2026 Aluminij Aluminij 1-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.12.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-3 HT 2-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
19.09.2025 Aluminij Aluminij 2-3 HT 1-2 Maribor Maribor SLVN
04.03.2025 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 0-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVNK
05.04.2024 Aluminij Aluminij 0-2 HT 0-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
11.02.2024 Maribor Maribor 7-0 HT 4-0 Aluminij Aluminij SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
3-0
AWAY Aluminij
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Aluminij
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor cruised past Aluminij 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Maribor had 55% of the ball to Aluminij's 45%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Maribor and 1.00 for Aluminij.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Aluminij?

Maribor 3-0 Aluminij in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Aluminij?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Maribor 48%, draw 24%, Aluminij 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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