Pau 1-0 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 23 Aug 2024

Pau
1-0 HT 1-0
Caen
📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Pau vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 31% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.84
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
9%
5.79
X/2
14%
5.57
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
19%
3.64
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.9pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pau v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.33/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.15
+10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.4 Crosses 18.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Pau vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Caen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.87 xG 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
315 Passes 450
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Pau Pau 2-3 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
12.08.2023 Caen Caen 2-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
02.06.2023 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
30.08.2022 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 1-1 Pau Pau FR2
19.02.2022 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
11.09.2021 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 1-1 Pau Pau FR2

Pau 1-0 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-0
AWAY Caen
1.07 xG 1.59
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 7
197 Passes 509
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau edged past Caen 1-0.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Pau found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pau had 31% of the ball to Caen's 69%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.07 to 1.59 — on chances, Caen could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pau and 1.17 for Caen.

What was the final score of Pau vs Caen?

Pau 1-0 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pau 31%, draw 30%, Caen 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Caen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5
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