Pontypridd Town AFC 1-0 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 23 Aug 2024

Pontypridd Town AFC
1-0 HT 1-0
Caerau (Ely)
📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Pontypridd Town AFC vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.43
Over 2.5
50%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
29%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.0pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+12.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-12.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pontypridd Town AFC v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 31%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
2.47/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.34
+21% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +52%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
392 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Pontypridd Town AFC vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontypridd Town AFC edged past Caerau (Ely) 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pontypridd Town AFC as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

What was the final score of Pontypridd Town AFC vs Caerau (Ely)?

Pontypridd Town AFC 1-0 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontypridd Town AFC vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontypridd Town AFC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pontypridd Town AFC 46%, draw 23%, Caerau (Ely) 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pontypridd Town AFC) ✗ BTTS Yes
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