AFC Hornchurch 3-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.95
Over 2.5
58%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.68
No
39%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.19
6+ Goals
14%
11.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.19 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
48%
-6.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
52%
+6.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
56%
+5.8pp
39%
BTTS No
44%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.31/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.61
-12% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Farnborough
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
04.03.2025 Farnborough Farnborough 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İCON
03.09.2024 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-0 HT 1-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
3-1
AWAY Farnborough
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch got the better of Farnborough 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AFC Hornchurch as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 44% of the ball to Farnborough's 56%, shots finished 14-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AFC Hornchurch had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AFC Hornchurch and 0.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough?

AFC Hornchurch 3-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 48%, draw 27%, Farnborough 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Hornchurch), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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