Uniao Santarem 1-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 27%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +11%
1.42/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.08
+7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao Santarem
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2025 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
09.03.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-1 HT 0-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
25.01.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-1 HT 1-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
26.10.2024 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao Santarem
1-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao Santarem and Sporting Covilha shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao Santarem at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Uniao Santarem had 46% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 54%, shots finished 12-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Uniao Santarem and 1.50 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha?

Uniao Santarem 1-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Uniao Santarem 45%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao Santarem), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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