York City 5-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 23 Sep 2025

York City
5-0 HT 3-0
Carlisle United
📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - National League – 2025/2026

York City vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.66
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
16%
4.79
X/2
9%
7.52
X/X
9%
5.09
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
12%
5.34
2/X
10%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

York City v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 30%
-12% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-20% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
129 · 93% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 102 · 92%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards –

York City vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York City
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
The Meetings
23.01.2016 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-0 York City York City İN2
19.09.2015 York City York City 2-2 HT 0-2 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
14.03.2015 York City York City 0-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
28.12.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-3 HT 0-1 York City York City İN2
10.01.2004 York City York City 2-0 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
09.08.2003 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 1-2 York City York City İN2

York City 5-0 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York City
5-0
AWAY Carlisle United
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH York City vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York City ran out comfortable winners over Carlisle United 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had York City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, York City had 52% of the ball to Carlisle United's 48%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, York City had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for York City and 0.67 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of York City vs Carlisle United?

York City 5-0 Carlisle United in the England - National League on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York City vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a York City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split York City 43%, draw 28%, Carlisle United 30%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (York City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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