St. Mirren 2-1 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.89
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
12%
5.6
X/2
12%
5.45
X/X
11%
4.47
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
19%
3.75
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.17/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.36
-7% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
254 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 72%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
25.7 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.79 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
266 Passes 248
70% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
02.03.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
30.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-3 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.08.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
24.05.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-0 HT 2-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
01.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-3 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
2-1
AWAY Aberdeen
1.56 xG 1.38
28% Ball Possession 72%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
130 Passes 513
59% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren edged past Aberdeen 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day St. Mirren made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Mirren had 28% of the ball to Aberdeen's 72%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.56 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for St. Mirren and 1.67 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

St. Mirren 2-1 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 37%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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