Salzburg 1-2 LASK Linz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
13%
9.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 22% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
9%
9.2
X/X
13%
5.34
2/1
10%
22.55
2/2
12%
6.56
2/X
5%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.93/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.55
-7% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.2 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY LASK Linz
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 Passes 284
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
19.05.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 7-1 HT 3-1 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
12.04.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.03.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 0-1 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
02.02.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-3 HT 1-2 Salzburg Salzburg AUK
21.10.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 0-1 HT 0-1 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
1-2
AWAY LASK Linz
2.03 xG 0.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
565 Passes 249
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
49 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs LASK Linz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz edged past Salzburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Salzburg had 67% of the ball to LASK Linz's 33%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.03 to 0.93 — the balance of chances actually favoured Salzburg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Salzburg and 1.17 for LASK Linz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs LASK Linz?

Salzburg 1-2 LASK Linz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs LASK Linz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 47%, draw 27%, LASK Linz 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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