Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
3-0 HT 3-0
Newport County
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 30% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.14
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
20%
3.99
X/2
7%
9.78
X/X
12%
5.37
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
15%
7.39
2/X
6%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milton Keynes Dons v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +13%
1.38/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.30
-15% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
444 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
16.5 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Newport County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.37 xG 1.34
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
454 Passes 183
82% Pass Accuracy 60%
23 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
22.11.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İNTK
07.01.2020 Newport County Newport County 3-0 HT 3-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İNTK
23.02.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
12.02.2019 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
09.08.2016 Newport County Newport County 2-3 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İNLK

Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-0
AWAY Newport County
1.51 xG 0.19
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
487 Passes 193
83% Pass Accuracy 63%
37 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons swept aside Newport County 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 66% of the ball to Newport County's 34%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 1.51 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 48%, draw 26%, Newport County 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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