MOL Fehervar 0-3 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.41/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.37
-2% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 75%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
21.2 Crosses 19.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MOL Fehervar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Debrecen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.72
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
268 Passes 429
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2025 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
26.10.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 2-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
12.05.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
18.02.2024 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 1-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
22.10.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 3-1 HT 2-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
30.04.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-0 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MOL Fehervar
0-3
AWAY Debrecen
1.22 xG 1.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
272 Passes 256
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Debrecen ran out comfortable winners over MOL Fehervar 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Debrecen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MOL Fehervar had 51% of the ball to Debrecen's 49%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.22 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MOL Fehervar and 1.17 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen?

MOL Fehervar 0-3 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MOL Fehervar vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split MOL Fehervar 31%, draw 28%, Debrecen 41%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Debrecen), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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