Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Nacional got the better of Deportes Tolima 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Atletico Nacional had 42% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 58%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 1.44 to 0.67.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.83 for Deportes Tolima.
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 51%, draw 24%, Deportes Tolima 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.