Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 2 Mar 2026

📅02/03/2026 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.1pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 39%
+14% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.17/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.10
+21% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
17.6 Crosses 13.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
386 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
03.08.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.03.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 4-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
23.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
19.12.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.11.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
28.04.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-0
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.35 xG 0.84
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
421 Passes 207
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Deportes Tolima made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 63% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 37%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.35 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.67 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 33%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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