Deportes Tolima 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.19/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.09
+12% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
296 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.0 Crosses 13.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.17 xG 0.93
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
402 Passes 234
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
02.03.2026 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.08.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.03.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 4-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
23.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
19.12.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
15.11.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
0-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.38 xG 0.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
312 Passes 361
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Deportes Tolima 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 48% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 52%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.38 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportes Tolima 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 37%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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17 May 2026
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