Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Deportes Tolima v Atletico Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Deportes Tolima 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Nacional shaded a tight game against Deportes Tolima 1-0 on their travels. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.
On the day, Atletico Nacional saw more of the ball, 52% to 48%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.38 to 0.44.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Deportes Tolima against 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional Result & Final Score
Deportes Tolima 0 - 1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 36%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportes Tolima), BTTS Yes went the other way.