Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 24 Jul 2026

📅24/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
24%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.17
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
12%
5.8
X/2
11%
5.22
X/X
13%
4.27
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
15%
3.56
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.41/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.19
-15% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
18.8 Crosses 21.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.91 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
311 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2026 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
30.10.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-2 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
28.09.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
02.05.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
28.03.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.09.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.08 xG 3.01
10 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
264 Passes 404
12 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova nicked a narrow win over Pogon Szczecin 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 1.08 to 3.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Legia Varşova's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 24/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 41%, draw 25%, Legia Varşova 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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