El Nacional 1-0 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
54%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.85
No
44%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
24%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+2.7pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
54%
Away Win
52%
+1.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.9pp
44%
BTTS No
50%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 56%
-21% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.07/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.06
-26% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -36%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.3 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
0W-5D-1L
AWAY LDU Quito
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 1.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
156 Passes 302
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.05.2025 LDU Quito LDU Quito 2-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
02.02.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKVSK
03.10.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
22.09.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
06.04.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
19.08.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-0
AWAY LDU Quito
0.73 xG 1.53
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 13
144 Passes 313
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 47
12 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional nicked a narrow win over LDU Quito 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was LDU Quito at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Nacional had 36% of the ball to LDU Quito's 64%, shots finished 12-27, expected goals 0.73 to 1.53 — on chances, LDU Quito could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for El Nacional and 0.83 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs LDU Quito?

El Nacional 1-0 LDU Quito in the Ecuador - Premier on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated an LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 25%, draw 21%, LDU Quito 54%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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