Padova Calcio 4-1 Virtus Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
70%
-10.7pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Verona EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +31%
1.63/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/0.96
-8% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +78%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
474 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Virtus Verona
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.02.2024 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
24.09.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
14.05.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
11.02.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 1-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
16.10.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
24.04.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-2 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
4-1
AWAY Virtus Verona
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Virtus Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio cruised past Virtus Verona 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 62% of the ball to Virtus Verona's 38%, shots finished 22-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Virtus Verona led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.83 for Virtus Verona.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Virtus Verona?

Padova Calcio 4-1 Virtus Verona in the Italy - Serie C on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Virtus Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 60%, draw 23%, Virtus Verona 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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