Mushuc Runa 2-2 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.66
No
58%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.9pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 23%
+21% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +42%
1.54/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.33
+30% / +124% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.9 Crosses 15.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-0D-5L
AWAY El Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.78 xG 1.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
203 Passes 183
69% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
31.10.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
23.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
26.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
08.10.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-2
AWAY El Nacional
1.61 xG 0.98
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
122 Passes 171
60% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa and El Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Mushuc Runa at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 45% of the ball to El Nacional's 55%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.61 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.67 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Mushuc Runa 2-2 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 50%, draw 24%, El Nacional 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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