Augsburg 2-1 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.65
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.63
X/2
7%
7.66
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
15%
5.77
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.41/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.67
-30% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
21.1 Crosses 15.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
362 Passes 299
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 4-0 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
09.03.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
22.10.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-5 HT 2-3 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.12.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-1
AWAY Heidenheim
1.09 xG 1.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
489 Passes 297
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg nicked a narrow win over Heidenheim 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Augsburg had 60% of the ball to Heidenheim's 40%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.09 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Augsburg and 1.50 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Heidenheim?

Augsburg 2-1 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 45%, draw 26%, Heidenheim 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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