Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Jan 2025

Freiburg
1-2 HT 0-1
Bayern Münih
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.95
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
61%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.88
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
29%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
17.95
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.25
1/X
7%
26.5
X/1
6%
22.1
X/2
21%
3.86
X/X
7%
9.59
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.39
2/X
6%
23.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.25 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
10%
+10.1pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.1pp
61%
Away Win
75%
-14.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 80%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.08/2.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/1.06
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -20%
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 507 · 85%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.8
15.8 Crosses 20.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Freiburg vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.87 xG 2.20
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
246 Passes 588
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 44
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-0 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
01.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
08.10.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.04.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
04.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
16.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.36 xG 0.96
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
269 Passes 581
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih edged past Freiburg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 35% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 65%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.36 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Freiburg and 2.33 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Bayern Münih?

Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 20%, draw 20%, Bayern Münih 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5
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