Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Jan 2025

Borussia Dortmund
2-2 HT 1-0
Werder Bremen
📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.39
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.84
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
17%
4.25
X/2
6%
11.65
X/X
11%
7.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
18.65
2/2
13%
8.38
2/X
5%
16.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 8% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.8pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.9pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
2.12/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.62
+37% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
440 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.7 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.75 xG 0.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
491 Passes 335
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
09.03.2024 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
11.02.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
18.04.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-1 HT 3-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.95 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 Passes 381
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 46% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 54%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.95 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.83 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 50%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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