RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.14
1/2
6%
23.85
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.25
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
4.92
X/X
12%
4.84
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
14%
2.81
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · X/2 at 4.92 — our 21% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 49%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +20%
1.19/2.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.42
-17% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
16.1 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
446 Passes 434
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.01.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-3 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
29.10.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.04.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.73 xG 2.55
66% Ball Possession 34%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
534 Passes 249
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 25
33 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 66% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 34%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.73 to 2.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.67 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?

RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 31%, draw 27%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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