Ascoli 2-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Jan 2026

📅25/01/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.21
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
5.13
6+ Goals
9%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ascoli EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 28%
-21% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
1.01/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.33
-30% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
267 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ascoli
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Perugia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.37 xG 1.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
315 Passes 178
72% Pass Accuracy 61%
16 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Perugia Perugia 0-2 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
03.03.2025 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 1-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
19.10.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
11.02.2023 Ascoli Ascoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Perugia Perugia İTB
10.09.2022 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
05.02.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ascoli
2-1
AWAY Perugia
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ascoli vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ascoli edged past Perugia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ascoli as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ascoli had 63% of the ball to Perugia's 37%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ascoli and 0.83 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Ascoli vs Perugia?

Ascoli 2-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 25/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ascoli vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ascoli 45%, draw 29%, Perugia 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ascoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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