Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 25 Jan 2026

📅25/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
51%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 29% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.67
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
17%
4.84
X/2
10%
7.76
X/X
12%
5.11
2/1
9%
23.1
2/2
9%
5.55
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Genk win — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.95/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.41
+4% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
21.9 Crosses 17.3
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.23 xG 1.91
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
406 Passes 204
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
30 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2025 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
08.02.2025 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 2-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
14.09.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 2-3 HT 2-2 Genk Genk BEL
04.05.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 4-1 HT 3-1 Genk Genk BEL
13.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
20.01.2024 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-1
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.03 xG 0.47
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
409 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Genk vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk and Cercle Brugge shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Genk at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Genk had 56% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 44%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.03 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Genk and 1.83 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Genk 1-1 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 25/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Genk 51%, draw 24%, Cercle Brugge 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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