UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UD Oliveirense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
UD Oliveirense
POR2
UD Oliveirense 2-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
UD Oliveirense edged past Penafiel 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; UD Oliveirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, UD Oliveirense had 49% of the ball to Penafiel's 51%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 1.89 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold UD Oliveirense's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.50 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
UD Oliveirense 2-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated an Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 36%, draw 27%, Penafiel 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Penafiel) went the other way.