Hillerod 3-0 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.29
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.2
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.05
X/1
21%
4.17
X/2
9%
9.5
X/X
14%
5.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.9
2/2
10%
7.66
2/X
6%
16.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
2.09/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.64
+15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.3 Crosses 15.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
4W-2D-0L
AWAY HB Koge
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.23 xG 0.82
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
540 Passes 330
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 HB Koge HB Koge 0-2 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
02.12.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 1-5 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
16.08.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 4-2 HT 2-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
05.05.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 1-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
19.04.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 1-1 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
08.03.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 0-4 HT 0-2 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
3-0
AWAY HB Koge
2.57 xG 0.49
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 6
13 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 7
570 Passes 211
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 8
33 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod ran out comfortable winners over HB Koge 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hillerod had 69% of the ball to HB Koge's 31%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.57 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hillerod had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Hillerod and 0.83 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Hillerod 3-0 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 50%, draw 25%, HB Koge 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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