Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Apr 2026

Arsenal
1-0 HT 1-0
Newcastle United
📅25/04/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.01
6+ Goals
13%
9.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.68
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
17.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.79
X/2
6%
14.2
X/X
9%
6.5
2/1
10%
21.8
2/2
6%
12.05
2/X
4%
20.7
Value flag · X/1 at 3.79 — our 29% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
66%
-0.2pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.6pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
1.86/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.54
+9% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +11%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
479 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 78%
35.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.4 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Arsenal vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
386 Passes 223
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
39 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.09.2025 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-2 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.07.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 2-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United HAZ
18.05.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 1-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
05.02.2025 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
07.01.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
02.11.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-0
AWAY Newcastle United
0.49 xG 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
323 Passes 415
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal edged past Newcastle United 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal had 45% of the ball to Newcastle United's 55%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.49 to 1.00 — on chances, Newcastle United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.33 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 66%, draw 18%, Newcastle United 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
25 Apr 2026
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