Atalanta 2-3 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 May 2025

Atalanta
2-3 HT 2-0
Parma
📅25/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Atalanta vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
10%
8.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 28% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Parma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.74/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.32
+23% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
374 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.1 Crosses 13.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

Atalanta vs Parma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Parma
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.43 xG 0.89
57% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
479 Passes 363
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.11.2024 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
04.08.2024 Parma Parma 4-1 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta HAZ
09.05.2021 Parma Parma 2-5 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 3-0 HT 1-0 Parma Parma İTA
28.07.2020 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
06.01.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 5-0 HT 3-0 Parma Parma İTA

Atalanta 2-3 Parma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-3
AWAY Parma
1.27 xG 2.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 6
404 Passes 355
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma nicked a narrow win over Atalanta 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atalanta had 53% of the ball to Parma's 47%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.27 to 2.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Parma's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Parma.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Parma?

Atalanta 2-3 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 41%, draw 29%, Parma 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atalanta), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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