Udinese 2-3 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
11%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
33%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.06/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.10
+0% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 84%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.2 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 1.61
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
237 Passes 399
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-2 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
14.01.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
24.09.2023 Udinese Udinese 0-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
14.05.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-0 HT 1-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
31.08.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
27.04.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-4 HT 0-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
2-3
AWAY Fiorentina
1.46 xG 2.72
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 8
234 Passes 489
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina edged past Udinese 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Udinese had 35% of the ball to Fiorentina's 65%, shots finished 12-25, expected goals 1.46 to 2.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fiorentina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Udinese had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Udinese and 1.17 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Fiorentina?

Udinese 2-3 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Udinese 32%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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