Lazio 0-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 May 2025

Lazio
0-1 HT 0-1
Lecce
📅25/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.45
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 27% vs market 18.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.74
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.55
X/1
16%
4.06
X/2
9%
14.05
X/X
14%
6.53
2/1
12%
21.7
2/2
6%
11.5
2/X
7%
19.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-12.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.4pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -15%
1.69/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.54
+9% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
20.0 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lecce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
453 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2024 Lecce Lecce 1-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
14.01.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
20.08.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
12.05.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
07.07.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-1 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
0-1
AWAY Lecce
1.93 xG 0.39
72% Ball Possession 28%
26 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 4
435 Passes 132
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
47 Box Touches 13
63 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce nicked a narrow win over Lazio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Lazio at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lazio had 72% of the ball to Lecce's 28%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 1.93 to 0.39 — on chances, Lazio could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lazio and 1.50 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Lecce?

Lazio 0-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lazio 52%, draw 27%, Lecce 21%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lazio)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
25 May 2025
21:45 Udinese vs Fiorentina Analysis →
21:45 Atalanta vs Parma Analysis →
21:45 Venezia vs Juventus Analysis →
21:45 Torino vs Roma Analysis →
21:45 Empoli vs Hellas Verona Analysis →