Philadelphia Union 3-3 Inter Miami — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.41
No
50%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
11%
5.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.31 — our 26% vs market 13.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.31
1/2
6%
24.2
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
15%
6.01
X/2
13%
6.49
X/X
13%
5.98
2/1
8%
22.45
2/2
18%
3.72
2/X
7%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
67%
-16.4pp
50%
BTTS No
33%
+16.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +27%
1.71/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.50
-1% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
20.4 Crosses 11.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Inter Miami
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.57 xG 1.09
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
296 Passes 443
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-1 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
15.09.2024 Inter Miami Inter Miami 3-1 HT 2-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
16.06.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
16.08.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-4 HT 0-3 Inter Miami Inter Miami CONLK
25.06.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 3-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
05.03.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
3-3
AWAY Inter Miami
2.78 xG 1.25
34% Ball Possession 66%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
211 Passes 523
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 34% of the ball to Inter Miami's 66%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.78 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter Miami led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Philadelphia Union and 2.33 for Inter Miami.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami?

Philadelphia Union 3-3 Inter Miami in the USA - Major League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 37%, draw 26%, Inter Miami 37%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5
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