Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.57
6+ Goals
8%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.63
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
6.47
X/2
12%
5.17
X/X
12%
4.57
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
18%
3.26
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · X/1 at 6.47 — our 20% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-5.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.06/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.01
-32% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +69%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
15.7 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.30 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
419 Passes 420
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.06.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
16.05.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
11.06.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
09.04.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
07.08.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-4 HT 2-2 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
19.09.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-2
AWAY Nashville SC
0.82 xG 2.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
351 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC edged past Toronto FC 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Nashville SC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toronto FC had 50% of the ball to Nashville SC's 50%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 0.82 to 2.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nashville SC's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 1.50 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 37%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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