V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.44/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.04
+12% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 21.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
4W-0D-2L
AWAY JEF United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
270 Passes 300
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 JEF United JEF United 1-2 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.05.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
12.11.2023 JEF United JEF United 1-3 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
18.02.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
03.09.2022 JEF United JEF United 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
28.08.2021 JEF United JEF United 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY JEF United
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
393 Passes 377
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki squeezed past JEF United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 50% of the ball to JEF United's 50%, shots finished 21-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.83 for JEF United.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United in the Japan - J2 League on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs JEF United?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 41%, draw 27%, JEF United 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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