Samgurali 3-2 Saburtalo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 25 May 2026

📅25/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
55%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
26%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+2.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
55%
Away Win
53%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samgurali EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +19%
1.16/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.19/0.77
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samgurali
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Saburtalo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2026 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
08.11.2025 Saburtalo 2-0 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
29.08.2025 Samgurali Samgurali 0-1 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
11.05.2025 Saburtalo 2-1 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
28.03.2025 Samgurali Samgurali 0-0 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
08.12.2024 Saburtalo 1-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samgurali
3-2
AWAY Saburtalo
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Samgurali vs Saburtalo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samgurali nicked a narrow win over Saburtalo 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Saburtalo carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Samgurali had 46% of the ball to Saburtalo's 54%, shots finished 16-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Samgurali and 1.33 for Saburtalo.

What was the final score of Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Samgurali 3-2 Saburtalo in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 25/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samgurali vs Saburtalo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Samgurali 24%, draw 22%, Saburtalo 55%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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