Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 Pafos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.2
6+ Goals
10%
20.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pafos EU Bookmakers 42%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-23% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 81%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2-1
AWAY Pafos
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Pafos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius squeezed past Pafos 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Zalgiris Vilnius made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 49% of the ball to Pafos's 51%, shots finished 5-14.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Pafos?

Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Pafos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 39%, draw 27%, Pafos 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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