DC United 3-4 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Aug 2024

DC United
3-4 HT 2-4
FC Dallas
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

DC United vs FC Dallas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
11%
4.28
X/2
11%
9.6
X/X
12%
5.69
2/1
7%
21.2
2/2
8%
6.66
2/X
8%
14.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

DC United v FC Dallas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.80/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.49
+3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
379 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.6 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

DC United vs FC Dallas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY FC Dallas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.73 xG 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 363
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.07.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 0-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
05.07.2019 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-0 HT 1-0 DC United DC United ABD
13.10.2018 DC United DC United 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
05.07.2017 FC Dallas FC Dallas 4-2 HT 2-1 DC United DC United ABD
26.03.2016 DC United DC United 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
19.07.2015 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD

DC United 3-4 FC Dallas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
3-4
AWAY FC Dallas
1.48 xG 2.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
308 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 13
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH DC United vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Dallas nicked a narrow win over DC United 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 2-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was DC United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, DC United had 46% of the ball to FC Dallas's 54%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.48 to 2.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for DC United and 1.83 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of DC United vs FC Dallas?

DC United 3-4 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split DC United 48%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 27%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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