New York City FC 2-2 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.91
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
16%
3.99
X/2
11%
11.3
X/X
12%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.2
2/2
8%
7.94
2/X
6%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +7%
2.13/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.82
+15% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
16.4 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.43 xG 1.06
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
330 Passes 340
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
22.10.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
05.03.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
22.08.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
23.05.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
28.10.2021 New York City FC New York City FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
2-2
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.31 xG 1.63
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
471 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
42 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC and Chicago Fire shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, New York City FC had 58% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 42%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.31 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for New York City FC and 0.17 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

New York City FC 2-2 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 52%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York City FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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