Portland Timbers 4-4 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.99
2-3 Goals
38%
2.19
4-5 Goals
27%
2.46
6+ Goals
15%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.99
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.42
X/2
8%
10.6
X/X
12%
7.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.65
2/2
10%
6.51
2/X
5%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 11% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-9.3pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.84/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.80
+8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 80%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.8 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
1W-1D-1L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 0.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
250 Passes 272
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.06.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 0-0 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
30.04.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 1-2 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
12.03.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-2 HT 1-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
4-4
AWAY St. Louis City
4.32 xG 1.53
61% Ball Possession 39%
32 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 3
487 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
49 Box Touches 18
37 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers and St. Louis City couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Portland Timbers at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 61% of the ball to St. Louis City's 39%, shots finished 32-13, expected goals 4.32 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.00 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?

Portland Timbers 4-4 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 54%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 23%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Portland Timbers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
25 Aug 2024
01:45 Minnesota United vs Seattle Sounders Analysis →
02:30 DC United vs FC Dallas Analysis →
02:30 New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Analysis →
02:30 CF Montreal vs New England Revolution Analysis →
02:30 Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Analysis →
02:30 Charlotte vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →