Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Aug 2025

📅25/08/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.42/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.22
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
399 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 78%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.6 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
411 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.04.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
24.11.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.09.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
29.08.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
03.12.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.08.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.70 xG 0.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
402 Passes 394
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 5
15 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo saw off Atletico Mineiro 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 51% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 49%, shots finished 10-4, expected goals 1.70 to 0.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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