AZ Alkmaar vs Elfsborg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AZ Alkmaar v Elfsborg — Team-Based Signals
AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Elfsborg — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar edged past Elfsborg 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 66% of the ball to Elfsborg's 34%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 2.70 to 0.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AZ Alkmaar's control.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Elfsborg?
AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Elfsborg in the UEFA Europa League on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Elfsborg?
Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 44%, draw 30%, Elfsborg 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.