Galatasaray 3-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.59
Over Pick
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
25%
5.93
2-3
39%
2.06
4-5
25%
2.58
6+
11%
5.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.9
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
9%
4.21
X/2
12%
11.6
X/X
10%
6.65
2/1
11%
19.7
2/2
7%
7.66
2/X
9%
14.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.0pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.8pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK The Market 22%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
0.99/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.28
-5% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
19.9 Crosses 15.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 4.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
3-1
AWAY PAOK
2.42 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
25 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
414 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
41 Box Touches 20
37 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray got the better of PAOK 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Galatasaray had 56% of the ball to PAOK's 44%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 2.42 to 0.87.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs PAOK?

Galatasaray 3-1 PAOK in the UEFA Europa League on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 48%, draw 26%, PAOK 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5
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